Note: a “straight run differential projection” is based on a team’s actual runs scored and runs allowed. A “component runs projected” is based on basic runs created
and component ERA
without the conversion into an ERA, i.e. just using the runs allowed estimate. I then applied the Pythagorean Formula
with an exponent of 1.83.
The AL East is split between three excellent teams, a pretty good one, and one that is downright terrible. The three excellent teams are within 3 games of the lead, but that fourth one, the pretty good one, is only three games out of third place and only six games from the lead. And they can really hit the heck out of the ball.
The top of the division is currently occupied by two excellent teams: the Tampa Bay Rays and those Damn New York Yankees.
had been burning through their opposition and setting a fearsome pace in the division, with a run differential at or near 100 runs as recently as two weeks ago, but they have hit kind of a rough patch of late
, having gone 6-6 over the past two weeks. For one thing, the pace they were setting, for 115 or so wins, simply wasn’t sustainable, as it was being paced by lights-out pitching. They still have a share of first place, sitting tied with the dreaded Yankees. Despite recent signs of life
, Centerfielder B. J. Upton continues to mystify, as his obvious talent stands squarely at odds with his on-field performance. First baseman Carlos Pena has struggled at the plate, though he has recently been on a tear and set the Rays’ franchise records for home runs in a career
. As far as their young and dynamic rotation goes, David Price has been great, performing well in the Rays’ first game against the Braves, but both Matt Garza and James Shields have been inconsistent. Nevertheless, the Rays still have an excellent defensive foundation, with very good pitching and a very good defense. Their offense has slowed down, but they still project to be a top-level team. Current record: 41-24, 0 GB; straight run differential projection 104 wins, .642 winning percentage; component runs projection 97 wins, .599 winning percentage.
Those damn New York Yankees
are up to their usual tricks, proving they are among the best teams in baseball. They occupy first place along with the Rays. They have split the first two games of their series with the Phillies, including a game one hammering of Phillies’ ace Roy Halladay on Tuesday night
. C. C. Sabathia kind of returned to form on Tuesday, though he still had a long inning, one in which he seemed to lose focus and surrender three runs. Most impressively, the Yankees have played well despite missing A-Rod in the lineup
. (A-Rod, in fact, may find his pursuit of certain career marks threatened by his lingering hip injury issues
.) The Bombers have been bombing, but, again, the recovery of A-Rod remains a concern, though this team is quite good in all areas, though probably not among the elite fielding teams in baseball. But, hey, if you can pitch and hit like these guys can, how out of it can you get? Over the last two weeks, the Yankees have been 9-4, and since the 5th of June they have surrendered more than four runs only twice. Current record: 41-24 0 GB; straight run differential projection 104 wins, .642 winning percentage; component run projection 103 wins, .633 winning percentage.
The Red Sox
have been rising, despite the fact that one prominent Boston sportswriter pretty much wrote them off for dead
in the third week of May (if you check his archive, you’ll see that he hasn’t written about the Sox since then). Another Boston columnist at least notes that the Sox have been rolling “despite lots of bumps
.” Actually, the Sox are either (a) underperforming or (b) getting a bit unlucky relative to their run differential, and they still are playing pretty darn well, meaning that both the Rays and Yankees ought not get too focused on each other just yet. Remarkably, the Sox have been doing all of this since their putative ace, Josh Beckett, went on the DL after having been, well–suboptimal may be too nice, and rancid may be too harsh–not exactly ace-like to begin the season. Despite Shaughnessy’s early season whining and griping and moaning and crying over Adrian Beltre not being very good, Beltre is hitting the heck out of the ball
, and the Sox offense is really clicking, despite being without Jacoby Ellsbury. Heck, their rookie rightfielder smashed a grand slam on the first pitch he ever saw in the Show on Saturday afternoon. Over the past two weeks the Red Sox have been 9-5. They are 39-28 and but 3 GB the division lead. Their straight run differential projection is for 94 wins and .577 winning percentage; their component run projection is 95 wins and a .588 winning percentage.
The Blue Jays
unfortunately reside in the AL East. I say unfortunately, because they have been very good this season, and very, very powerful at the plate, leading the majors in home runs with 103 dingers in their first 67 games, putting them on pace for 249 home runs for the season. They are only 3 games out of third place, but that puts them 17.5 games above the fifth place team, the odious Orioles (but more about them later). The Jays are crushing the ball despite a serious fall-off in production from both Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Instead, other Jays’ sluggers
have paced them. I watched their game against the Padres tonight, and catcher John Buck smashed a ball off the Western Metal Supply Company building
in the left field corner of Petco Park, a ball that hit the top facing of that building and would have probably flown another hundred feet had a damn building not intercepted its flight. At any rate, the Blue Jays have shown some decent pitching here and there, but even with their power, their lack of on-base percentage makes them a suboptimal team in a division as stacked as this one. The Yankees and Red Sox simply grind away on offense, the Rays pitch and field as well as anyone, and the Blue Jays are somewhat exposed in such an environment. Given these facts, Joe Pawlinoski wonders what the Jays should do
, as in, should they acquire pieces via the trade market for the here and now or should they focus on the future. Like Pawlinoski, I think they’d be better off looking to next year. Over the past two weeks the Jays a
re 5-8, but they have been on the road since the 8th, and they are a better home team and could thus be quite the spoiler down the road for those top three teams in this division. The Jays are 36-31, 6 GB in the East; their straight run differential projection has them with 87 wins and a .537 winning percentage; their component run projection is for 86 wins and a .533 winning percentage.
Ah, the lowly Orioles
. Man, what can I say but they really suck. And there is yet more pain to follow
. Their bullpen is just a mess, with injuries and inconsistency galore. Their young starting pitching, which had me convinced that they could compete for fourth place in the division, has been, well, terrible. They don’t score runs for their best two pitchers, Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie, who have the worst and the fourth or fifth worst run support in the American League. And, as far as their offense goes, their first basemen are being offensively outproduced by three National League pitching staffs
. Yes, that’s what you just read: first basemen are producing less than pitchers are. If that isn’t the definition of
Offensive Ineptitude, I don’t know what is. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore is 3-11, and they have allowed 95 runs in those 14 games, an average of almost 7 runs allowed per game; their offense has scored but 38 runs in those same 14 games, barely above 2.5 per game; good grief, but that is terrible. While rookie starter Jake Arrieta has been a welcome sight
, and while both Buck Showalter
and Bobby Valentine
have met with the team regarding the manager’s job, I have no clue what they could possibly do at this point to improve. In the same vein of darkly despairing rhetoric, follow the link to see a late May rant at the Baltimore organization
by an Oriole’s follower (I particularly like the opening: “Let’s not kid ourselves: The O’s organization has officially taken any hope of a brighter future and thrown it out of the window.”) The Orioles are 18-48, 30 games under .500 (with only 66 games played thus far), and 23.5 games behind the division co-leaders; for goodness’ sake, they are 17.5 games out of fourth place in a five team division! Their straight run differential projection is for 46 wins and a .284 winning percentage, which would make them the worst team since the 2003 Tigers, who were the worst team since the 1962 Mets, which is epically
terrible territory. The Orioles component run projection is slightly “better” at 50 wins and a .309 winning percentage. Wow, the Orioles are terrible.
Come back tomorrow for a look at the AL Central.