Note: a “straight
run differential projection” is based on a team’s actual runs scored and
runs allowed. A “component runs projected” is based on basic runs created and component ERA without the adjustment to make it an ERA figure (i.e. IP and
the multiplication by 9 not included). I then applied the Pythagorean
Formula with an exponent of
As recently as ten days ago, all five teams in this division
were within six games of the lead. Oh, what an interesting difference a
week can make in the post-Memorial day environment. With summer now upon
us three teams have winning records and are within 5.5 games of the top, while
a fourth team clings to playoff contention and the fifth is regressing to its
mean, with hopes and dreams for next season dancing in its (collective) head.
42-28, .600 winning percentage, 0 GB, 4.91 runs/game (1st in
NL), 3.96 runs allowed per game (6th in NL); straight run differential
projection of 97 wins and a .599 winning percentage; component run projection
of 90 wins and a .554 winning percentage.
Over the past fortnight, the Braves have played the
Diamondbacks, the Twins, the Rays and the Royals. Atlanta is 9-4 over
these games, winners of five straight, including 2 of 3 from the Twins and the
Rays, and a clean sweep of three games from the Royals. Over these last
thirteen games, the Braves have scored 67 runs (5.15 per game) while allowing
54 (4.15 per game). They’ve allowed a few more than they have been giving
up on average, but they continue their league-leading offensive ways. And
while the D-Back and the Royals aren’t exactly top-flight competition, the
Twins and the Rays are, and the Braves took four of six games from
those two teams. Bobby Cox’s team is no fluke and figures to be in the
hunt the whole way down the road.
Looking ahead the Braves visit the White Sox starting tonight before returning
home to face the Tigers and Nationals as they end the month of June.
Calcaterra refutes the “grit” notion, arguing that the Braves’ success stems from
skill rather than an immeasurable intangible.
A possible distraction for this ballclub has been the Chipper
Jones’ saga: will he or won’t he retire. Chipper himself has played coy, refusing to give a definitive answer.
The funny part has been that he’s been hitting close to .500 since all the speculation started.
An unheralded free agent signee, Eric Hinke is hot at the right time in the right place.
33-36, .478 winning percentage, 8.5 GB, 5 GB Wild Card.
4.70 runs/game (4th in NL), 4.36 runs allowed per game (8th in NL).
Straight run differential projection of 83 wins and a .510 winning
percentage. Component run projection for 79 wins and a .490 winning
Over the past two weeks, the Marlins have visited the Phillies,
the Rays, and the Rangers, and they have hosted the Rays. They were 5-5
over that stretch, and while they were swept by the Rangers, Florida did take
four of six games from the Rays in their two weekend series. The Yankees
thus own the Marlins some thanks or something, Over their past ten games,
the Marlins have scored 63 runs while allowing 55 (no per game figures for ten
games, just move the decimal point). Scoring has thus been up in their
games, as they are scoring and allowing more runs per game over the stretch in
As play progressed, the Marlins visit Baltimore before returning
home to end June, playing the Padres and the Met in two tough series.
Defensive lapses have proved costly to
Florida of late.
Is Ricky Nolasco the new Carl Pavano (in a that’s not
a compliment kind of way)?
While rookie OF Mike Stanton has hit his first MLB home run in “grand
fashion”, he is still making the adjustment to the Show and
striking out a whole, whole lot (44% of his plate
appearances). As expected, Cameron Maybin has been shipped back to AAA to make
room for Stanton on the Major League roster.
While Ubaldo Jiminez and Roy Halladay have generated a lot of
justifiable hoopla, Josh Johnson’s awesomeness has been kind of lost in the
shuffle. J. J., who faced Halladay the night Roy threw his perfect game
in Florida and picked up a tough luck loss in a game in which he allowed only
one unearned run, has been masterful this season. He
outpitched Halladay twelve days after the perfect game completely shutting the
Phillies down over eight innings. Johnson’s game log is impressive, with a bunch more
performances that include two or fewer runs allowed over seven or more innings.
Johnson is sporting a career-high K rate, a career-low walk rater, which
of course translates into a career-best K/BB ratio; along with that he has a
career-best HR/9 rate, a career-low batting average against, a career-low BABIP
against, a career-high strand rate, and while his groundball-to-flyball rate is
slightly down, his home run to flyball rate is also at a career low. All
this career-best stuff leads to two conclusions: (1) he’s having a career
season and has pretty much a dominant starting pitcher; and (2) he probably
won’t sustain his current level of statistical dominance, but,
then again, he doesn’t need to do so to remain one of the three best starting
pitchers in the National League, and even if his numbers slide some he’ll still
be among the best starting pitchers in baseball.
30-30, .565 winning percentage, 2.5 GB, 0 GB wild card.
4.51 runs per game (9th in NL), 3.91 runs allowed per game (5th in NL).
Straight run differential projection at 91 wins and a .565 winning
percentage; component run projection for 79 wins and a .490 winning percentage.
Note the wild disparity between the straight run differential
projection and the component run projection. I checked the data three
times and it’s all correct and the spreadsheet is calculating things the right
way. The Mets are one of the following: (a) really lucky, (b) really
efficient, or (c) some combination of lucky and efficient. Their actual
run differential is 311 runs scored and 270 runs allowed, but their component
run differential–what we’d expect them to have scored and allowed–is 300 runs
scored versus 346 runs allowed. So, where my projection is really screwing
up and misreading reality is on the runs allowed question. It’s been
pretty accurate with other teams, so I’m wondering if someone else who runs
projections and calculates run projections is getting the same strange reading
of the Mets. I suppose I should be happy for the guys in Queens, but I’m
more concerned that the Mets are wrecking my statistical model.
(Actually, it’s probably that I’m running a less-that-optimal runs
allowed projection, which is referred to in the “introduction” to
Over the past two weeks, the Mets have played the Padres, the Orioles,
the Indians, and the Yankees. They beat the crap out of who they should
have beaten and dropped two of three to the Yankees in the Bronx. The
finished the stretch of games 9-3, having scored 57 runs (4.75 per game) and
having allowed 34 (2.83 per game) That the Padres and Orioles aren’t
exactly offensive powerhouses, the Yankees are, so the Mets have
pitched and fielded pretty darn well over this stretch, and they have been hot
since the beginning of the month, with a 13-4 record in June. They are
playing a lot better than I thought they would this season, for I had them
pegged as the Cubs of the East, and they are doing this despite three potential
points of weakness: (1) Jason Bay’s underperformance; (2) Jeff
Francouer’s near-total lack of production; and (3) Johan Satnana’s declining velocity.
The main problem I have with the Mets outperforming expectations
is that it virtually guarantees that GM Omar Minaya will continue to hold his
position and that the Mets’ front office will remain shielded from the
intensive scrutiny that they should be receiving for their previous follies.
Oh, who am I kidding? Not living in New York, I am not exposed to
the constant scrutiny the Mets receive, so I’m not aware of it. But I do
wish to encourage the New York sports media to go nuts figuring out how the Mets’
front office has managed to disappoint repeatedly in the last few years.
Speaking of the Mets’ GM, Mets players want him to go get them an ace, so
maybe the players realize that the team’s actual runs allowed are out of line
with what should be going on. And maybe they, too, realize the
implications of Santana’s declining velocity.
32-39, 10.5 GB, 8 GB Wild Card. 4.15 runs/game (12th in
NL), 4.66 runs allowed per game (12th in NL). Straight run differential
projection for 73 wins and a .449 winning percentage. Component run
projection for 71 wins and a .440 winning percentage.
Over the past two weeks the Nationals
have been fading have played the Pirates, Indians, Tigers, White Sox, and Royalls,
and they are 5-8 in their games during that stretch, including a sweep of
PIttsburgh, dropping two of three in Cleveland, and being swept by both the
Tigers and the White Sox. In those 13 games, the Nationals have
scored 44 runs (3.38 per game) while allowing 60 (4.62 per game), a showing of
offensive ineptitude. Explaining why they’ve lost more than they’ve won
seems a waste of time since allowing 1.24 more runs per game than you’re
scoring is a one-way ticket to the cellar.
In better news, the Royals seem just the sort of tonic the
Nationals are in need of and they are in Washington for two more games.
The Nationals beat Kansas City behind some strong pitching on
To finish June the Nationals will finish the KC series before
traveling to Baltimore–another tonic–and Atlanta–not so much on the tonic
end of things.
Obligatory Stephen Strasburg link dump to follow.
Are strikeouts a bad thing for Stephen
Strasburg? Thomas Boswell wants to minimize the stress on SS’s arm and so
would like to see fewer deep counts, fewer pitches, and more weak tappers.
He’s got a point, sort of.
It turns out that hitters aren’t alone in being overwhelmed by
Strasburg’s stuff: he’s too much for the umpires to handle as well.
In other Nationals’ pitching news, John Lannan was sent down to
Double-A, which leads to some questions, but a glance at his peripherals provides some
answers, with Josh Alper of Fanhouse hitting the nail
squarely on the head:
For his career, he’s struck out just 4.3 batters per nine innings
and walked 3.5, a ratio that makes it very difficult to sustain success over a
long period of time. His groundball rate has dropped since 2008, a further sign
of trouble for a pitcher who simply can’t miss bats often enough.
35-32, .522 winning percentage, 5.5 GB, 3.5 GB Wild Card.
4.60 runs per game (7th in NL) and 4.28 runs allowed per game (7th in
NL). Straight Run Differential Projection for 86 wins with a .528 winning
percentage. Component run projection for 82 wins and a .508 wining
Over the last fortnight, the Phillies are 5-7 in their games
versus the Padres, the Marlins, the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Twins.
That is good competition but it seems as though the Phillies are waiting
for their Godot or their Mojo or something. In taking two
of three from the Yankees in the Bronx, there were thoughts that the series could turn their season around, but they promptly
returned home and dropped two of three to the Twins. While lots of teams
have dropped two of three to the Twins, the problem for the Phillies was that
they dropped a game on Saturday in which they led 8-3 at one point, meaning
they had to really subtract some serious Win Probability to
lose that game, and then they lost behind Roy Halladay who was seemingly
outpitched by Carl Pavano (?!) on Sunday afternoon.
Over their past twelve games, the Phillies have scored 56 runs
(4.57 per game) while allowing 72 runs (6.00 per game). Despite the fact
that two of their losses included back-to-back thumpings by the Red Sox, the
Phillies’ run prevention efforts have been subpar and are a significant
contributor to their recent slide in the standings. While their offensive
woes have received more attention–and justly so, since their offense has been
highly touted–their inability to compensate for their muffled bats with
tighter defense and better pitching, particularly from the bullpen, has been a
real and perhaps growing problem.
The Phillies finish June by visiting Cleveland, then returning
to Philadelphia to “visit” the Blue Jays before traveling to
The Phillies’ mojo–or at least their shortstop Jimmy Rollins–is due back today.
The Twins took 2 of 3 from the Phillies in Philadephia, smashing home runs and recovering from ugly starts by both Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey to win a wild one on Saturday and kind of cruise to victory on Sunday behind a strong start by Carl Pavano, aka Luigi.
After two young and relatively inexperienced starters were forced out very early over the first two games of a series in a tough opposing ballpark, Pavano faced off against one of the game’s most dominant pitchers and delivered a masterful complete-game victory, relieving a beleaguered bullpen and salvaging a series that at one point looked completely lost.Pavano has completed seven or more innings in 11 of his 14 starts this season and has accumulated more innings than all but four starters in the AL. It’s no coincidence that he has factored into the decision each time he’s pitched this season; he’s routinely lasted deep into games and he has heavily impacted their outcomes. Talk about earning your paycheck. (That last sentence can be read with a not-so-slight tinge of irony by my friends who follow the Yankees.)
The Red Sox have had some outfield injuries. As a result, Daniel Nava made his Major League Debut this afternoon. A former independent minor league player, Nava had a bit of a tough time on a ball hit down the left field line in the top of the second inning.
The fact that Hallday’s perfect game occurred in a tight pitcher’s duel, won by the Phillies by the slimmest of margins made his Win Probability Added enormous (.888), confirming that he completed one of the most dominant pitching performances in history. 11 K’s during a perfecto sure helps establish that as well.
Okay, fine, it wasn’t even close to a perfect game by the Marlins, but their pitching staff sparkled on Sunday as four pitchers combined to shutout the Phillies 1-0.
Yup, the Mets shut the powerful Phillies out over three consecutive games, sweeping them after taking two of three from the Yankees in a series that saw the Mets shut down the Bombers as well.