Note: a “straight
run differential projection” is based on a team’s actual runs scored and
runs allowed. A “component runs projected” is based on basic runs created and component ERA without the adjustment to make it an ERA figure (i.e. IP and
the multiplication by 9 not included). I then applied the Pythagorean
Formula with an exponent of
Well, well, the AL West, a division full of teams with flaws. Only one team in this division is above average at both scoring and preventing runs, and that team plays in a climate that has historically caused their pitching to melt down in the summer heat. The rest of the teams allow more runs than they score, which is obvious cause to doubt their prospects.
39-33, .542 winning percentage, 3.5 GB, 4.5 GB Wild Card. 4.74 runs per game (6th in AL), 4.88 runs allowed per game (11th in AL), straight run differential projection 83 wins and .511 winning percentage; component run projection 79 wins and a .488 winning percentage (an 13 games behind first place…ouch!)
Over the past two weeks the Angels have faced the A’s, Dodgers, Brewers, and Cubs, and they have made the most of their competition, with an 8-5 record over that time. But their bogus run differential condition persists: they have scored 61 runs (4.69 per game) over that period, but they’ve allowed 65 runs (5.00 per game). This is the oddness of this year’s Angels ballclub: they are six games over .500 despite giving up more runs than they have scored, and they are out-performing their expected record by four games. Their record of 8-5 over the past two weeks is about two games better than we would expect, all things being equal. On top of this already kind of odd oddity, the Angels’ actual run differential significantly over-performs their expected–component–run differential, which implies that they’ve been efficient and quite lucky so far this season. Or they are a wild aberration.
Jered Weaver, pictured above, is leading the AL in strikeouts.
From here, the Angels return home to face the slumping Dodgers, then the Rockies, and then the division-leading Rangers as June draws to its close.
The Angels’ offense is surging but…the pitching, particularly the bullpen, remains suspect. It used to be that once Scioscia went to the ‘pen, the game was over, and you could practically feel that even while watching on TV. But it hasn’t been like that in either ’09 or ’10, and, in fact, the opposite feeling, one of near panic, has been palpable, even on my computer monitor. Heck, you can practically smell the flop-sweat dripping off of Angels’ relievers’ faces when they come into tight situations.
A good example of what I’m talking about took place on Friday, when the Angels led the Cubs 7-2 heading into the ninth inning. The “other Francisco Rodriguez” promptly walked the first two batters than served up a dinger to Tyler Colvin to cut the score to 7-5 and then Fernando Rodney walked a high wire in a high win to close out the Cubs 7-6. But why did that game end up that close? in 2008 the Angels’ ‘pen just shut them down. Of course, the game would have been 3-2 in 2008 in the first place, so maybe I don’t have a point.
Despite infield injuries that include the Erik Aybar’s knee, the Angels are holding together and really swinging the bats very well. But if they keep on giving up more runs than they score…well, they just won’t be around to play in the post-season.
[Note: I have not hyperlinks for the Angels because…I was delinquent and had a power outage while I was typing this post the other night and all my material went…wherever stuff goes in cyberspace when the power goes out before you save your work….]
34-37, .479 winning percentage, 8 GB, 9 GB Wild Card. 4.00 runs/game (12th in AL), 4.28 runs allowed per game (4th in AL). Straight run differential projection for 77 wins and a .473 winning percentage; component run projection for 76 wins and a .467 winning percentage.
Over the past two weeks the A’s have fallen off the pace in the AL West. Granted the Rangers have been really, really hot, but the A’s have faced the Angels, Giants, Cubs, and Cardinals and they have won only 4 games, losing 9, in that time period. They have scored 50 runs (3.85/game) while allowing 56 (4.31/game), meaning that their offense has been worse and less active in the past two weeks than it has over the course of the season, which is scary, since their offense hasn’t been…so far this year.
From here the A’s host the Reds (whom they trail 0-1 right now in game one of that series), and the Pirates (which maybe should give A’s fans something to be happy about) before they travel to Baltimore to end the month of June.
According to A’s fans, manager Bob Geren isn’t making the grade, and the blog Athletics Nation offers a condensed Managing 101 course for their allegedly confused skipper.
I’m not sure it’s just an issue with a manager, but rather than this team simply can’t score enough.
26-41, .388 winning percentage, 13 GB, 14 GB Wild Card. 3.41 runs/game (13th in AL); 4.38 runs allowed per game (8th in AL); straight run differential projection 62 wins, .382 winning percentage; component run projection 63 wins, .390 winning percentage.
Ah, Seattle. They expected big thins this year but they just can’t score runs. Their Offensive Ineptitude is pretty entrenched. On the other hand, they can pitch a little here and there: they just swept the Reds, allowing Cincinnati only 1 run in the entire 3-game series and winning two 1-0 shutouts behind some obviously dominant starting pitching from Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
In the last two weeks the Mariners have faced the Rangers, the Padres, the Cardinals, and the Reds, all teams that are at or near the top of their divisions. Seattle has gone 6-7 over that stretch of games, but they needed to sweep the Reds to win six games, meaning they were 3-7 versus the Rangers, Padres and Cardinals. Over the past two weeks, the Mariners have scored 32 runs (2.45 per game) while allowing 61 (4.69 per game), meaning that they weren’t very good until they started playing the Reds, allowing 60 runs over the ten games prior to their series with Cincinnati…yuck.
Going forward, the Mariners host the Cubs–maybe we’ll see the Silva vs. Bradley matchup we’ve been waiting for–before traveling to Milwaukee and the CitiField portion of New York as Seattle closes out June.
The brightest spot for the Mariners has been the ridiculous Cliff Lee, who threw a brilliant 1-0 shutout on Friday night. Right now the Mariners are being coy and staying mum about what other teams are asking about trading for Lee. The blog, U. S. S. Mariner, provides a nice assessment of Cliff Lee trade stuff. And my heart beats a little faster upon reading this item on the Twins being serious about pursuing him…oh, sorry, the Twins being serious about considering pursuing him.
Finally, here’s an item comparing the Mariners to the division-leading Rangers. Kind of funny if you’re not a Mariners fan.
41-28, .594 winning percentage, 0 GB. 5.14 runs per game (4th in AL), 4.33 runs allowed per game (5th in AL). Straight run differential projection 93 wins and a .577 winning percentage. Component run projection for 90 wins and a .554 winning percentage.
The Rangers have the largest lead over second place of an division-leading team. They are HOT, and their offense has been completely ridiculous in June: .302/.361/.467, a .829 OPS, and a .360 team wOBA (that’s in 2009 New York Yankees territory).
While they did just come off a sweep of the putrid Astros, the Rangers hold a 9-1 record over their last 10 games, a 15-4 record in June, and they are 11-2 over the past two weeks, having faced the Mariners, the Brewers, the Marlins, and the Astros, and having scored 80 runs (6.15 per game) while allowing only 38 (2.92 per game). They have over-performed their expected wins for the past two weeks by 1 game, and they are two games over expectations for the season.
And Nelson Cruz hasn’t been at 100%.
Gosh, Vlad Guerrero loves hitting in the Ballpark. While that .371 BABIP looks unsustainable, he was a .390 career hitter at that ballpark in over 100 career games there before the season started. He just flat-out hits in Arlington: .389/.439/.690, 1.129 OPS and .476 wOBA. That. Is. Obscene.
The Rangers will finish June by playing the Pirates and Astros at home before going to LA to face the Angels. In other words, they are set up to continue their strong June before facing their nearest division competitor.
One source of strength for the Rangers has been the unexpected contributions they have received. Additionally, 5 key pieces in their lineup are simply raking with runners-in-scoring-position and 2 outs.
Josh Hamilton has been ridiculously hot as well. After last season, no one could expect that Hamilton would be good, but the better he is the more likely the Rangers will be to take the AL West.
Right now, Texas is the class of the division, but as I noted in the opening, the summer heat is still on its way, and it tends to melt Rangers pitching. There’s still 90 games to be played and the Rangers could fold like a Titanic deck chair, but even in they do, none of us should forget the June they’ve had here in 2010 because it’s been special.
Starting pitcher Scott Baker wasn’t particularly sharp, though he got big outs when he needed to do so, and the Twins’ lineup came out slugging against really, really inefficient–and possibly injured–Rangers’ starter Derek Holland as Minnesota swept slumping Texas 6-3 and opened up a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central over the Detroit Tigers.
A record crowd of 39,659 watched Rangers’ starting pitcher C. J. Wilson silence, or at least seriously muffle, the Twins’ bats for five and two-thirds innings Saturday afternoon at Target Field. He was coasting along, with the Rangers holding a 2-0 lead. And then things changed quickly.
The question for the day is if the Rangers miss Rudy Jaramillo, their old hitting coach.
Meanwhile, a comparison of stats from a year ago, and for those who doubted or blamed Rudy for the Rangers’ ’09 offensive slide, the early “numbers,” even the “deep count” geek numbers, work against them.
Not counting Thursday night:
Pitches per plate appearance: 3.8 then and now.
Walks: 140 now, 122 a year ago. (Thank you, Elvis, and also Justin Smoak.)
Strikeouts: 288 now, 335 a year ago.
Batting average: .265 now, .272 a year ago.
Home runs: 37 now, 57 a year ago.
Runs: 194 now, 221 a year ago
And worst of all:
Hitting with runners in scoring position: .241 now and .267 a year ago.
In 2009, the Rangers finished seventh in the American League in OPS and seventh in scoring.
In 2010, the Rangers rank sixth in the American League in OPS and fifth in scoring.
I’m not sure what else to say about this. The Rangers apparently decided that no hitting coach, even one with Jaramillo’s track record, is worth “big money and a multiyear deal.” Nothing that’s happened this season would support the argument that they were wrong.
But analyzing the Rangers’ hitters without accounting for league context just isn’t good enough. I don’t know how much money the Rangers saved when they didn’t match (or exceed) the Cubs’ offer to Jaramillo. But a fourth of the way into the season, it looks like that money was probably better spent elsewhere.
tive standing that matters here. That is, the context matters.
writing nice things about teams. I just gotta’.
The Rangers are in Toronto, with RF Nelson Cruz freshly returned from the disabled list. He has made an immediate impact, with 4 RBI, including a 3-run
homerun double off of Blue Jays starter Brett Cecil.
The Rangers won a tightly pitched ballgame over the A’s at the Ballpark, 2-1. (Read the preceding sentence again; five, heck, two seasons ago, who would’ve though the Rangers would win with pitching?)
This is the time for the Rangers to make a move in the AL West.
The schedule is weak with only nine of the next 53 games against teams currently with winning records. The starting pitching has been excellent, and the Angels are struggling.